by Eric Margolis
To mark the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, Serb
paramilitary police slaughtered 45 elderly Albanian Muslims
villagers in Kosovo, even taking time to mutilate the bodies and
gouge out eyes.
The United States, which had blasted Muslim Iraq on the eve of
Ramadan, strongly denounced Serbia. In response, Serbs ordered the
chief American diplomat monitoring the supposed cease-fire in
Kosova to get out. Belgrade refused entry to the chief prosecutor
of the UN War Crimes Tribunal, Louise Arbour, who had come to
examine Serbia's atrocity du jour.
Welcome to the latest round of Yugo-charades. NATO huffed and
puffed at Serbia, threatening it with air strikes for breaking the
non-cease fire in Kosovo, where Serb forces and Albanians
guerrillas have been steadily skirmishing. The Serb strongman once
again told NATO to go jump in the Adriatic. NATO sent a delegation
to scold Milosevic, while leaking it really didn't want to attack
Serbia. France and Greece, Serbia's tacit allies, kept Milosevic
fully informed on NATO's deliberations. Moscow increased secret
deliveries to Serbia of arms and oil. The Muslim World was too
busy with Ramadan parties to even notice the tormented Muslims of
Kosovo.
Milosevic took advantage of President Clinton's trial to launch
his latest terror attacks against Kosovo's Albanians, who comprise
93% of the population of this rebellious Serb province. Milosevic
knows just how far he can push NATO before it reacts, and is a
master at pulling back at the last minute. He must have Napoleon's
famed prayer on his desk: "Oh Lord, if I must make war, please
make it against a coalition."
The Serb dictator's strategy is clear: keep on terrorizing Kosovo,
but not enough to provoke full-scale NATO attack. Keep playing
off NATO's divided members. Keep Washington convinced only it can
bring peace to ex-Yugoslavia. Having risen to dictatorship by
vowing to "crush the Albanians," Milosevic cannot be seen to back
down without jeopardizing his hold on power. Growing internal
opposition to Milosevic was underlined by his recent dismissal of
the chief of staff of the Yugoslav Army, and the head of the
secret police. If Kosovo decamps from rump Yugoslavia, Montenegro
will follow. Milosevic, president of Yugoslavia, will be without
a job.
The cease-fire in Kosovo - Kosova in Albanian - cobbled together
by Washington has proven, as this column predicted, not only a
total farce, but an exact repetition of the follies committed in
Bosnia. The 700 truce "verifiers" sent to monitor the cease-fire,
and halt Serb atrocities against Albanian civilians, are now
hostages of the Serbs - just as UN "peacekeepers" in Bosnia,
including Canadians, quickly became hostages of Bosnian Serbs. If
NATO bombs Serbs, they threaten to seize the "verifiers," and
launch attacks on NATO forces in Bosnia. Serbs understand that
even if NATO does summon the resolve to use military force, the
worst they can expect are limited, token attacks designed to calm
public outrage in the west.
NATO has only two choices in Kosovo. Either accept ongoing Serb
military repression, including massacres and ethnic cleansing. Or
accept that when 93% of a state's people passionately yearn for
independence and relief from brutal Serb rule, no halfway solution
is possible. Kosovo's tiny Serb minority is fleeing for its life,
leaving behind only the Serb military garrison and enraged
Albanians.
Albanian guerrillas will sharpen their fighting skills, acquire
better arms, and increase pressure on Serb forces, making their
hold on Kosovo increasingly expensive and untenable. Serb
massacres, atrocities, and ethnic cleansing have doomed chimerical
US plans to fashion Kosovar "autonomy" within Serbia. Independence
for Kosovo is inevitable. The best solution is a transition
period, leading to independence, in which Serbia can save some
face. Kosova should be made into a NATO protectorate, and occupied
by NATO troops.
NATO's fears an independent Kosova will seek immediate unification
with neighboring Albania and the ethnic Albanian regions of
Macedonia, provoking a major Balkan crisis, or even regional war,
are wildly overblown. Bankrupt Albania is a ward of western
Europe's socialist and communist parties, who call the tune for
Tirana's neo-communist regime. Macedonia has become a NATO
protectorate. There is little love lost between Kosovar Albanians,
who are Ghegs, and their Albanian cousins, half of whom, including
the Tirana regime, are Gheg-unloving Tosks. Besides, Kosovars
would be in no rush to merge with chaotic, dirt-poor, demolished
Albania.
Still, NATO seems determined to maintain the status quo, even at
the price of continuing Serbia's atrocities. Heavily-armed Serbia
will shoot back if bombed, unlike nearly defenseless Iraq. The
White House and Pentagon prefer military theatre to real warfare.
Protecting Kurds and Shia from Saddam's wrath is one thing; saving
Albanians from the cruelty of Milosevic quite another.
So rather than go after Milosevic, the man who destroyed
Yugoslavia, supervised the murder of 252,000 victims, created 2
million refugees, and committed the worst atrocities in Europe
since the Nazi era, the US and NATO have elected to stall and
prevaricate, as the wise Napoleon knew all coalitions usually do.
Instead, NATO delegates keep going to Belgrade to beg, cajole, and
flatter Milosevic, while telling Kosovar Albanians to stop causing
trouble. A pretty pathetic 50th anniversary for NATO, which can't
even stop the massacre of women and children in its own backyard.
[Eric Margolis is a syndicated foreign affairs columnist and
broadcaster based in Toronto, Canada.]
Copyright © 1999 Eric Margolis - All Rights
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