April 29, 2016

The Coming World of 'Peak Oil Demand,' Not 'Peak Oil'

by Michael Klare and Tom Engelhardt

. . . At the beginning of this century, many energy analysts were convinced that we were at the edge of the arrival of "peak oil"; a peak, that is, in the output of petroleum in which planetary reserves would be exhausted long before the demand for oil disappeared, triggering a global economic crisis. As a result of advances in drilling technology, however, the supply of oil has continued to grow, while demand has unexpectedly begun to stall. This can be traced both to slowing economic growth globally and to an accelerating "green revolution" in which the planet will be transitioning to non-carbon fuel sources. With most nations now committed to measures aimed at reducing emissions of greenhouse gases under the just-signed Paris climate accord, the demand for oil is likely to experience significant declines in the years ahead. In other words, global oil demand will peak long before supplies begin to run low, creating a monumental challenge for the oil-producing countries.

This is no theoretical construct. It's reality itself. Net consumption of oil in the advanced industrialized nations has already dropped from 50 million barrels per day in 2005 to 45 million barrels in 2014. Further declines are in store as strict fuel efficiency standards for the production of new vehicles and other climate-related measures take effect, the price of solar and wind power continues to fall, and other alternative energy sources come on line. While the demand for oil does continue to rise in the developing world, even there it's not climbing at rates previously taken for granted. With such countries also beginning to impose tougher constraints on carbon emissions, global consumption is expected to reach a peak and begin an inexorable decline. According to experts Thijs Van de Graaf and Aviel Verbruggen, overall world peak demand could be reached as early as 2020. . . .


"Energo-fascism: The Global Energy Race and Its Consequences," The Wisdom Fund, January 16, 2007

Michael Klare, "Big Oil's Collapse And The Birth Of A New World Order,", January 14, 2016

Jonathan Rutherford, "What's really driving the global economic crisis is net energy decline,", August 2, 2017

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