by Julian Borger
The number of potential nuclear weapons states could more than double in a
few years unless the major powers take radical steps towards disarmament,
the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog has warned. . . .
ElBaradei, the outgoing director general of the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA), said the current international regime limiting the spread of
nuclear weapons was in danger of falling apart under its own inequity. "Any
regime . . . has to have a sense of fairness and equity and it is not there," he
said in an interview at his offices in Vienna. . . .
"We still live in a world where if you have nuclear weapons, you are buying
power, you are buying insurance against attack. That is not lost on those
who do not have nuclear weapons, particularly in [conflict] regions."
He predicted that the next wave of proliferation would involve "virtual
nuclear weapons states", who can produce plutonium or highly enriched
uranium and possess the knowhow to make warheads, but who stop just short of
assembling a weapon. They would therefore remain technically compliant with
the NPT while being within a couple of months of deploying and using a
"This is the phenomenon we see now and what people worry about in Iran. And
this phenomenon goes much beyond Iran. Pretty soon . . . you will have nine
weapons states and probably another 10 or 20 virtual weapons states." . . .
He argued that the only way back from the nuclear abyss was for the
established nuclear powers to fulfil their NPT obligations and disarm as
rapidly as possible. He said it was essential to generate momentum in that
direction before the NPT comes up for review next April in New York.
"There's a lot of work to be done but there are a lot of things we can do
right away," ElBaradei said. "Slash the 27,000 warheads we have, 95% of
which are in Russia and the US. You can easily slash [the arsenals] to 1,000
each, or even 500." . . .
ElBaradei won global fame - and the Nobel peace prize for himself and his
agency - by standing up to the Bush and Blair governments over claims of
Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. His relationships with the Obama
administration, and to some extent the Brown government, are better, since
both have embraced banning nuclear weapons. Obama has started talks with
Moscow on mutual cuts in arsenals.
Jimmy Carter, "Saving
Nonproliferation 'The United States is the major culprit in this erosion of
the NPT'," Washington Post, March 28, 2005
Enver Masud, "Iran Has an 'Inalienable
Right' to Nuclear Energy," The Wisdom Fund, January 16, 2006
"US-Iran: A New Age of Diplomacy?,"
The Wisdom Fund, April 1, 2006